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Vision 2030 for Denmark

Danish Vision 2050 - 2030! (Updated: July 2011)

The Danish Vision 2030 is similar to the vision for EU; but developed to fit the targets and visions of the Danish INFORSE members. The proposed development follow the same general path as in the European vision, but given the large wind and possibly wave energy resources in Denmark, as well as an ambitious construction sector that have stated that it can half the heat consumption of Danish buildings, the target is for a phase-out of fossil fuels by 2030 !

In 2030, where a large part of electricity is expected to come from intermittent sources (wind and wave energy), there is a need for flexible electricity demands with heat pumps with heat storages, smart charge of electric cars etc. In particular there is extensive use of heat-pumps in district heating systems. There is also use of electricity for hydrogen production for transport and hydrogen storages.

September 2010: Launch of Sustainable Energy Vision 2030 - Denmark
Press Release ( pdf file)

For a description of the Danish 2010 Vision, please read here ( pdf file 67 kB)
A full-sized copy of this poster can be downloaded here:

Poster DK 2030: ( pdf 358 kB)

A Sustainable Energy Vision for Denmark

By Gunnar Boye Olesen, the Danish Organisation for Sustainable Energy (OVE), and INFORSE-Europe

OVE and other Danish NGOs have a vision to make a transition of the Danish energy system to rely on sustainable energy 20 years from now.
In many respects, Denmark is well on its way with the transition with an increase of windpower from 1% of electricity production in 1988 to almost 20% in 2005, a doubling of total renewable energy use since 1991, no nuclear power, and large increases in efficiency. In spite of the successes there is still a long way to go. We need clear political decisions to guide the development, and we need to give up some “holy cows”, such as the coal use in power production, the untouchable car etc.
There are a number of good reasons while Denmark should embark on a fast transition to 100% renewable energy: Denmark is one of the richest countries in the world and one of the largest CO2 emitters per capita. In addition Danish oil and gas resources will be virtually exhausted by 2030, self sufficiency with oil and gas will likely disappear before 2020. Denmark has benefited from the first step of the transition with the development of large windpower and biomass industries. Add to all this the global dimensions: the climate seems more fragile than previous estimated and global oil supply is rapidly diminishing.
OVE’s vision is based on studies of the possibilities for renewable energy and energy conservation, a model that has been developed based on the work of the International Network for Sustainable Energy, which developed a vision for a European transition to sustainable energy. Additionally is used a model of the hourly variations in demand and supply in 2030 to test that there is balance in the system every hour of the year.

Renewable Energies in the Vision
An important part of the Vision is rapid increase of renewable energy. This includes a continued development of:

- Windpower:
The level in 2030 could be 10,000 MW of installed capacity, up from 3,200 MW today. It could be realised by replacing existing smaller windmills with new, large ones and expanding the off-shore development from close 500 MW today to 5,000 MW. In this way about 2/3 of the power production will come from wind.

- Solar Energy: The solar energy use could be 13 m2 per capita for solar collection, 8 m2 solar PV electricity and 5 m2 of solar heating. Even though PV is expensive, the PV development is expected mainly after 2020. When this investment is shared over 20 years in a period with falling PV prices, it will not be a burden for Denmark. The solar heating will partly be for district heating.

- Biomass: Biomass from existing production (wood, straw etc.) will continue at present level while biogas should be substantially expanded, to use half of Danish manure, grass from extensively used land 7.5 times the present level. Also energy crops should be expanded, and could cover 150,000 ha. Also increased straw and wood from cuttings is included.

In addition geothermal energy use should be expanded as have been done in Copenhagen, and wave-power should be used to supplement windpower. If the technical problems of wave power are not solved, windpower should be developed to 2,000 MW, but only after 2020, when the technology will be ready.

Strong Emphasis on Efficiency
For electricity consumption, industrial production and transport is expected that the end-use efficiency can be increased a factor-4 compared with today’s level until 2050. It is well documented that thus is possible with use of best available technologies. The increase of efficiency is a slow process, and until 2030 is “only” expected increases from 40% to 64% in different sectors.

Regarding transport OVE is in favor of a transport vision with a 40% reduction of personnel car use and almost 50% reduction of truck transport. This will partly be replaced by a factor-3-6 times increase in rail transport and doubling of bicycle use. This will require a shift of existing trends and doing away with the perception that longer distances of commuting and increasing goods transport are positive developments. If the vision is realised, it will remove most traffic jam, reduce noise and pollution in cities and in several other ways contribute to better lives.

Regulating Intermittent Supply
Large parts of the energy supply will come from intermittent sources. Solar heating is expected to cover 5-10% of district heating, which also will require expansion of heat storages with expansion to 2.2 an average of 2.2 days average load in district heating systems. These heat storages can be used for storing heat from cogeneration of heat and electricity, de-linking the electricity production from the heat consumption. In the power system the requirements are larger as in 2030 about 80% of the power production should come from windpower, wave power, and solar. Almost half of the intermittent production could be used for flexible electricity use such as heat pumps and hydrogen production, while the other half should be used for normal consumption. This will require electricity exchange with Norway and Sweden as Denmark does today, but no new power lines.

Good Economy in a Transition to Renewable Energy in 20 years
INFORSE-Europe and VedvarendeEnergi have assessed the economy of a rapid transformation in 20 years, and compared it with a situation where renewable energy and energy efficiency will expand at a slower pace. This assessment is also done with the EnergyPlan programme.

In the Energyvision'2030 all the energy resources comes from sources in Denmark, including biomass. At the alternative scenario, Basis2030, Denmark will be dependent on imports of fossil energy, since the Danish production of oil and gas will be very modest in 2030.

A Fast Start is Crucial
The economy of the transition is dependent on the right decisions for investments in a timely mannmer. The sooner we start, the more harmonious the development can be to replace old, inefficient power plants with new ones, which are powered by renewable energy. If we wait and continue to invest in fossil energy, the transition will be more costly. There may be costly bottlenecks in the transition, and we may be forced to scrap the newer plants.

7 Scenarios with Different Development of Wind Power and Biomass
One of the discussions of a future energy system with 100% renewable energy is “how much biomass is needed?”. It is possible to choose a larger supply of wind and in turn less biomass. Therefore is developed 7 scenarios with different uses of wind power and biomass, for the Energyvision2030:

The Vision does not end in 2030. The efficiency can continue to increase, which can free biomass that can be used in the chemical industry, where it can replace fossil fuels as feed-stock for production of plastics, lubricants, etc.

Additional information about the Scenarios and the Vision can be downloaded from here (pdf file)

More detailed descriptions, assumptions are available at OVE's homepage here (in Danish):
- Event on December 9, 2010
- Event on September 27, 2010
- Vision 2030 in Denmark
, 40 Proposals
- Vision Publication (40 pages)

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