The International Network
for Sustainable Energy

Danish Vision 2050

The Danish Vision2050 is similar to the vision for EU; but developed to fit the targets and vsions of the Danish INFORSE members. The proposed development follows in general the same path as in the European vision, but given the large wind and possibly wave energy ressources in Denmark, as well as an ambitious construction sector that have stated that it can half the heat consumption of Danish buildings, the target is for a phase-out of fossil fuels by 2030.

In 2030, where a large part of electricity is expected to come from intermittent sources (wind and wave energy), there is a need for electricity storages n addition to the extensive use of heat-pumps in cogeneration systems and use of electricity for hydrogene productions in high-wind periods.

The poster above provides additional details about the Vision for Denmark. This poster can also be downloaded here in full size: Poster DK (471 kB pdf)

A more thorough description of the Danish vision is described in Danish in the following publications:
- "Vi har energien" (We have the energy), published by the Danish Organisation for Sustainable Energy (OVE), May 2005.
- Magazine "Vedvarende Energi & Miljø" (Renewable Energy and Environment) published by the Danish Organisation for Sustainable Energy (OVE), June 2005.
- English version was published in March 2006 by the Danish Organisation for Sustainable Energy (OVE). See article below.

A Sustainable Energy Vision for Denmark
By Gunnar Boye Olesen, the Danish Organisation for Sustainable Energy (OVE), and INFORSE-Europe

OVE and a number of other Danish NGOs have a vision to make a transition of the Danish energy system to rely on sustainable energy 25 years from now.
In many respects, Denmark is well on its way with the transition with an increase of windpower from 1% of electricity production in 1988 to almost 20% in 2005, a doubling of total renewable energy use since 1991, no nuclear power, and large increases in efficiency. In spite of the successes there is still a long way to go. We need clear political decisions to guide the development, and we need to give up some “holy cows”, such as the preference of gas over renewable energy, the untouchable car etc.
There are a number of good reasons while Denmark should embark on a fast transition to 100% renewable energy: Denmark is one of the richest countries in the world and one of the largest CO2 emitters per capita. In addition Danish oil and gas resources will be virtually exhausted by 2030. Denmark has benefited from the first step of the transition with the development of large windpower and biomass industries. Add to all this the global dimensitons: the climate seems more fragile than previous estimated and global oil supply is rapidly diminishing.
OVE’s vision is based on studies of the possibilities for renewable energy and energy conservation, and a simple model that has been developed based on the work of the International Network for Sustainable Energy, which developed a vision for a European transition to sustainable energy. The vision is a working model that is gradually improved as new information becomes available.

Renewable Energies in the Vision

An important part of the vision is rapid increase of renewable energy.This includes a continued development of:

Windpower: The level in 2030 could be 8500 MW of installed capacity, up from 3000 MW today. This increase follows a study by the Danish power company Elkraft about the possibilities for windpower developments. It could be realised by replacing existing smaller windmills with new, large ones and expanding the off-shore development from close 500 MW today to 3500 MW. In this way almost 2/3 of the power production will come from wind.

Solar Energy: The solar energy use could be 8 m2 per capita for solar collection, 5 m2 solar PV electricity and 3 m2 of solar heating. Even though PV is expensive, the PV development will cost less than 3,000 Eur per capita with today’s prices. When this investment is shared over 25 years in a period with falling PV prices, it will not be a burden for Denmark. The solar heating will partly be for district heating.

Biomass: Biomass from existing production (wood, straw etc.) will continue at present level while biogas should be substantially expanded, maybe reaching 7.5 times the present level. Also energy crops should be expanded, and could cover 14% of agricultural land.

In addition geothermal energy use should be expanded as have been done in Copenhagen, and wave-power should be used to supplement windpower. If the technical problems of wavepower are not solved, windpower should be developed 20% more.

Graph:Development of the Danish renewable energy according to OVE’s vision.

Strong Emphasis on Efficiency

For electricity consumption, industrial production and transport is expected that the end-use efficiency can be increased a factor-4 compared with today’s level. It is well documented that thius is possible with use of best available technologies. The increase of efficiency is a slow process, and until 2030 is “only” expected a doubling of the efficiency level compared with today.

Regarding transport OVE is in favor of a transport vision with a 40% reduction of personnel car use and 55% reduction of truck transport. This will partly be replaced by a factor-3 increase in rail transport of 40% increase in bus transport. This will require a shift of existing trends and doing away with the perception that longer distances of commuting and increasing goods transport are positive developments. If the vision is realised, it will remove most traffic jam, reduce noise and pollution in cities and in several other ways contribute to better lives.

Regulating Intermittent Supply

Large parts of the energy supply will come from intermittent sources. Solar heating is expected to cover 15% of district heating, which will require expansion of heat storages with “monthly storages” for solar heating. These heat storages can also be used for storing heat from cogeneration of heat and electricity, de-linking the electricity production from the heat consumption. In the power system the requirements are larger as in 2030 up to 80% of the power production should come from windpower, wavepower, and solar. Almost half of the intermittent production could be used for flexible electricity use such as heat pumps and hydrogen production, while the other half should be used for normal consumption. This will require electricity exchange with Norway and Sweden as Denmark does today, or electricity storages, such as chemical storages.

The vision does not end in 2030. The efficiency can continue to increase, which can free biomass that can be used in the chemical industry, where it can replace fossil fuels as feed-stock for production of plastics, lubricants, etc.

Graph: Electricity production divided according to sources.
Production above the sloping line is electricity for export that is not needed in Denmark because of increasing electricity efficiency.



Graph: Denmark phase out of CO2 emissions by 2030.