The
International Network
for Sustainable Energy
Within the framework of a global vision for a change to sustainable energy by 2050 (Vision 2050), INFORSE-Europe and member organisations are working on European and national visions for the transition. While it is beyond the scope of NGOs to make detailed energy plans, the visions include overviews of possible developments, indications on how the changes can be made, and sometimes also cost estimates. They build on existing work such as scenarios, and they are using a common spreadsheet tool that describes the possible development decade by decade.
European
Vision
The current version of the European Vision 2050 includes a vision
for a transition of the energy supply and demand for the 27 EU countries
with phase-out
of fossil and nuclear energy until 2050. The Vision 2050 for EU-27 is
an update made in 2007 on the Vision 2050
for EU-25 made
in December 2004.
Factor 4 for Energy Efficiency
In line with the global vision, the European Vision is based on rapid
growth of energy efficiency to reach an average level in 2050 similar
to best available technologies today. Most energy consuming equipments
will be changed several times until 2050, and if new generations of
equipment are made with optimal energy performance, and markets
are made to promote
the most efficient technology, it will not be a problem to reach today's
best available technology, even though the efficiency gains required
are very large, - in the order of 4 times, similar to an annual increase
of efficiency of over 2% per year from 2010. This will not happen by
itself, given that the "natural" technological development
has been 1% per year or less. It will require concerted action from
all stakeholders involved, but indications are that if the market is
large
enough for each new generation of efficient equipment, it will be a
cost-effective development - the extra equipment costs will be off-set
by energy savings.
It will also benefit equipment manufacturers that will get better products,
also for the world market. It is, however, necessary to go beyond the
conservatism of many market players in this field, and develop a truly
enabling market for energy efficiency throughout the society.
The Challenge
of Reducing Heat Consumption
For buildings, the situation is different from equipment because
buildings often have lifetimes of 100 years or more. Most of the
houses to be
heated in 2050 are probably already built. For the 15 "old" EU
countries, the target heat consumption is 60 kWh/m2 as average. This
will require
about a 57% reductions compared with current EU-average (in 1990
the heat consumption was 150 kWh/m2 which is estimated to have decreased
to 140 kWh/m2 in 2000 for EU-15). If energy-efficiency measures are
included in renovations, such a change is possible. The increase
in
efficiency
is estimated to be 2%/year from 2010, but only 5% in total 2000-2010.
This could be realised by
• raising building-codes to current low-energy housing levels by 2010 (with
a first step followind the EU Energy Performance in Buildings Directive,
implemented 2006-2008),
• require that all major renovations include a major energy-renovation,
and
• embark on a major program for passive-houses to achieve that the majority
of new buildings are passive houses.
" Passive houses" are buildings where internal energy sources and passive solar energy supply close to 100% of the demand for space heating.
For the new EU-countries is expected a similar increase in efficiency for space heating, but at a higher level of specific heat demand.
Efficient Transport
For transport is assumed that the conversion-efficiency from
fuel to transport-work is increased 2.5 times (from current
15- 20%
in combustion
engine systems to 50% in fuel cell systems with break-energy
recovering; direct electrically driven vehicles have even higher
efficiency),
and that the vehicles will be equipped with recovering of break-energy,
so the "end-use" of energy in transport is limited to the
unavoidable friction losses in transport (except for aviation). The
total efficiency
increase is assumed to be in the order of 4 times compared with today's
average transport efficiency.
For rail, and navigation are "only" included increase in
efficiency gains of 40% and 25% respectively.
Will Higher Efficiencies Be Possible?
There is not doubt that higher efficiencies will be possible
than the factor 2-4 increases included in this vision;
but given the
current difficulties
with realisation of efficiency potentials in many European
countries, the efficiency increases proposed in this vision
have been limited
to the factor 2-4. It is proven that for individual industrial
companies and houses, factor 4-10 is possible as increase
in efficiency. The
challenge
is to realise the efficiency on national and international
levels.
Decoupling Growth
The growth of energy services, i.e. heated floor space, transported
goods and people, energy consuming production, is expected
to reach saturation
levels during the 50-year period of the vision. This
is in line with the perception that the average Western European
has reached
a sufficient
level of material consumption to satisfy needs, and that
material growth should gradually be stopped leaving environmental
space
for the poorer
parts of the world. The new EU countries are expected
to have
higher material growth in the first decades, similarly
to the growth 2000 – 2010
and then gradually lower growth as they approach EU-average.
If the gradual reduction of growth of energy services is to be realised,
it
will require
that the growth of energy services does not follow the expected
economic growth, i.e. that the economic growth is decoupled from growth
in material
consumption such as energy services. Alternatively the economic
growth should reduce. If economic growth continues with 2.5% per year,
GDP
will double every 30 year, and will have increased 3.4 times
in 50 years.
A 2.5% economic growth is a normal growth rate that economists
typically expect for Western European countries. If this level of economic
growth
is to continue, the challenge for realisation of the sustainable
development described with this vision is to triple the economic value
expressed
as GDP compared with energy consuming structures and activities.
Assumed growth in activities for old EU-countries (EU-15):
- Floor space,
household and service: 30% increase 2000 - 2050 with 10% in the first
decade and gradual decreasing growth
- Electric appliances in households and service: 10% higher growth than
floor space, i.e. 43% in the period 2000 - 2050
- Industry: no growth in physical production volume, i.e. 0% in growth
2000 - 2050, but the value will grow.
- Personal transport:
the vision includes a 35% reduction in private car use and an increase
in train & tram use of 2.5 times
as well an increase in bus use of 20%. This is
a vision of a more human and sustainable
transport.
- Freight transport: the vision includes a 35% reduction in road freight
combined with 2.5 times increase in rail freight
and 1.4 times increase in freight navigation .Pipeline transport is expected
to decrease
30%
with decreased transport of fossil fuels and a
small development of hydrogen pipelines.
Graph: Development of selected activities 2000 - 2050 for EU-15, Vision2050
For the 12 "new" EU countries is expected higher growth than for EU-15, mainly for the service sector and in road transport. For both these sectors is expected a 2 - 2.5 times increase above the 2000-level of activities.
Renewable Energy Targets
The vision follows the expectation of 10 - 11 % renewable energy
in 2010 for the 15 “old” EU countries, and the target proposed
by a large number of NGOs and the European Parliament of 25% renewable
energy in 2020. For the EU-27 the shares of renewable energy are in this
vision 10% for 2010, 25% for 2020, 40% in 2030, and in 2050 above 95%.
For the 12 "new" EU countries is expected higher growth than for EU-15, mainly for the service sector and in road transport. For both these sectors is expected a 2 - 2.5 times increase above the 2000-level of activities.
Graph: EU-27
Renewable Energy Growth, Following Vision2050
Windpower
The Windforce10 report (updated in 2002 with the Windforce12 report) gives
an overview of how it is possible to realise a large development of windpower
in EU-15, following the current trends. Its targets are taken up by INFORSE,
as well as by Greenpeace International, European Wind Energy Association,
and others. The development expected in Windforce10/12 fits well with
the necessary development to reach the goals of Vision2050, globally as
well
as on European leve, see Windforce-text. The expected long-term electricity
production from windpower is about 1000 TWh/year for EU-15, which will
require about
375,000
MW of wind turbines equal to 80% of the long-term potential according to "Windforce10".
Of this 1/3 of the capacity is expected to be off-shore. With this developments
windpower will cover close to 50% of the 2050-electricity demand in EU-15.
Studies for Denmark shows how a country can supply 50% of its power from
windpower, and the Danish electricity system operator “Energinet
DK” is now planning for this.
Intermediate targets for EU-15 are 77,000 MW in 2010 and 220,000 MW in 2020.
These intermediate targets indicate that windpower is one of the most mature
renewable energy technologies with most of the expected development in the
first part of the period.
A modest target of 17,500 MW is included for the 12 new EU countries.
Solar
Solar heating as well as solar electricity are expected to play large roles.
Solar heating can cover at least 10% of the heating demand, and more if
seasonal storage is introduced. The use of solar heating is expected to
raise to about 4.2 m2/capita, each m2 with a yield of 400 kWh/year in average.
After 2030 is expected some use of seasonal storage, as solar will cover
more than 10% of the demand in some sectors. The use of solar electricity
(expected mainly as PV, but also solar thermal electric) is expected to
increase to about 5.3 m2/year with an expected annual average production
of 100 kWh/m2. This would give for EU an expected electricity production
of almost 200 TWh. The current development is expected to speed up and
the strongest development will take place in the later parts of the period.
Biomass
Until 2010 solid biomass use excl. energy crops for EU-15 is expected to grow
to about 3900 PJ, about 75% of the sustainable potential, and a large increase
from 2100 PJ in 2000. The current trends are a bit below the target in
this paper, that is in itself below the 2010 target in the EU White Paper
for renewable energy for the EU-15. While a large part of the 2010 target
is expected to be reached with biomass for heating, it is expected that
biomass later will be used more for cogeneration of heat and power. Biomass
can also be used for transport, e.g. with production of hydrogen.
After 2010 solid biomass is expected to grow up to a limit of 4100 PJ for EU-15
that is indicated as the sustainable potential for the EU by the German Advisory
Council on Global Change in 2003. The limit for the 12 new countries is set
to 1500 PJ, following other estimates.
In addition to solid biomass is included use of biogas of 750 PJ (210 TWh gas), 8 times the level in 2000 for EU-15 and 110 PJ for the 12 "new" countries. The increase in biogas use is based on an estimation of a total biogas potential in EU-15 of 209 TWh from Biogas in Europe: A General Overview by Jens Bo Holm-Nielsen, MSc. & Teodorita AI Seadi, Sc, Southern Danish University.
Energy forest is expected to be used after 2010, and to reach a level of about 7% of present agricultural land by 2020, except for Slovakia where the limit is set to 40%, following indicative national plans. The use is expected to grow to 1900 PJ of which 450 PJ in the 12 new countries.
In addition to this is included liquid biofuels, to be used in transportation, construction and other sectors. The use of biofuels is expected to reach about 460 PJ using 7% of the agricultural land extensively, i.e. with crops that also produce fodder and without extra demand for agricultural inputs (for some "new" countries, the area is limited to 5%).
Hydropower
For hydropower is expected a 20% growth for EU-15. This is similar to the growth
expected in the EU White Paper for Renewable Energy, but it is only expected
to be realised by 2020. For the "new" countries is expected about
65% growth in average, including renovation of many smaller hydropower
plants that were abandoned 1945-1990. The large majority of the growth
is expected in Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria.
Geothermal
energy
The use of geothermal energy for heating and electricity is expected to give
450 PJ in for EU-15 and 260 PJ for the new countries, primarily for heating.
In addition to that comes contributions from heat pumps that are expected to
play a role to balance the load, primarily for the EU-15 that have the highest
fraction of intermittent electricity production.
Other renewables, such as wave-power can also play a large role in the future, but have not been assessed for this vision. They could give a smaller contribution from 2020.
Nuclear
and Fossil Energy
Nuclear energy is expected to be phased out as the current nuclear reactors
are stopped because of age, safety problems etc. This is expected to happen
mainly until 2020. For fossil fuels are expected a gradual phase-out of coal-use,
a slow but increasing phase-out of oil use, and a growing gas consumption until
2010, followed by phase-out until 2050.
Energy Conversion, Hydrogen& Heat Pumps
The energy conversion system will also have to be changed. The electric grid
is likely to increase in importance, because electricity will also be used
for transport, directly or via conversion to hydrogen, and some heating will
be via the use of heat-pumps. The large dependence on intermittent electricity
supply makes it necessary to have flexible electricity consumption and energy
storage in some forms. It is expected that use of current storage in hydropower,
pump-storage etc. combined with more flexible consumption for heat via heat
pumps and for hydrogen can provide the necessary regulation at least until
2040. An obvious possible flexibility in power plants is to combine cogeneration
plants with heat-pumps. When there is over-supply of electricity from solar
and wind, the plant changes from producing electricity to consuming electricity,
while still giving the heat users the necessary heat, and without loosing efficiency
from turning to single production of heat or electricity. From 2040 there might
be need in addition for electricity storage, e.g. as chemical storage. For
EU-15 the fraction electricity that is intermittent supply (wind & solar)
and flexible consumption is expected to be:
2020: Intermittent supply: 22%
2030: Intermittent supply: 37% Flexible use: 13%
2040: Intermittent supply: 47% Flexible use: 23%
2050: Intermittent supply: 57% Flexible use: 32%
For the "new" EU countries the use of windpower is expected to be less, and the need for electricity, leading to a lower fraction of intermittent supply, and less need for electricity storage.
Gas networks are expected to have decreasing importance. They might play a role for transportation of hydrogen or biogas, but probably not for long-distance transport after 2040.
Graph: EU-27 change of Energy Supply, following Vision2050
Graph:
Development of EU-27 electricity production and sources, following
Vision2050
Energy Trade
Energy trade is expected to be much less than today, and if the efficiency
potentials are realised EU-15 might not be an energy importer after
2040. Some energy import is expected for the new EU countries, but
only in the order of 10-15% of today’s level. The import is expected
to be mainly electricity.
Graph: EU-27 phase out of CO2 emissions
The assumptions used in the Vision are described in more details in the downloadable EU background paper () A special note on the assumptions for Poland is downloadable here (word 34kB).
See also the Vision2050 for Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Romania.