The International Network
for Sustainable Energy

Within the framework of a Global Vision for a change to sustainable energy by 2050 (Vision 2050), INFORSE-Europe and member organisations are working on European and national visions for the transition. While it is beyond the scope of NGOs to make detailed energy plans, the visions include overviews of possible developments, indications on how the changes can be made, and sometimes also cost estimates. They build on existing work such as scenarios, and they are using a common spreadsheet tool that describes the possible development decade by decade.

European Vision
The current version of the European Vision 2050 includes a vision for a transition of the energy supply and demand for the 27 EU countries with phase-out of fossil and nuclear energy until 2050. For the 15 "old" EU countries is proposed a reduction of 40% until 2020 and 70% until 2030 with 1990 as basis. The new EU-countries already had large reductions since 1990, so the reductions proposed is larger with 1990 as basis but smaller with 2000 as basis. Thus the combined reductions for EU-27 becomes 42% in 2020 from 1990. The Vision 2050 for EU-27 is made in 2008 based on earlier versions from 2007 and 2004 (Vision 2050 for EU-25 )

The Need to Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions
As we already experience problems of changing climate, it is no longer possible to avoid harmful climate change; but by reducing emissions we can reduce the risks of larger climate catastrophes such as large-scale flooding and droughts that deprives larger populations of their homes, livelihoods, or even lives. The EU has agreed to reduce global warming to 2'C; but that might no even be enough to avoid major negative climate effects. Reductions of the 27 EU countries of 40% in 2020 and almost 70% in 2030 on the way to phase out fossil fuels and similar sharp reductions in other countries (developing countries emissions should then peak until 2017), will give 70-85% certainty that the global average temperature will remain below 2'C. Read more about the needs to limit greenhouse gases.

Factor 4 for Energy Efficiency
In line with the global vision, the European Vision is based on rapid growth of energy efficiency to reach an average level in 2050 similar to best available technologies today. Most energy consuming equipments will be changed several times until 2050, and if new generations of equipment are made with optimal energy performance, and markets are made to promote the most efficient technology, it will not be a problem to reach today's best available technology, even though the efficiency gains required are very large, - in the order of 4 times, similar to an annual increase of efficiency of over 2% per year from 2010. This will not happen by itself, given that the "natural" technological development has been 1% per year or less. It will require concerted action from all stakeholders involved, but indications are that if the market is large enough for each new generation of efficient equipment, it will be a cost-effective development - the extra equipment costs will be off-set by energy savings. It will also benefit equipment manufacturers that will get better products, also for the world market. It is, however, necessary to go beyond the conservatism of many market players in this field, and develop a truly enabling market for energy efficiency throughout the society.

The Challenge of Reducing Heat Consumption
For buildings, the situation is different from equipment because buildings often have lifetimes of 100 years or more. Most of the houses to be heated in 2050 are probably already built. For the 15 "old" EU countries, the target heat consumption is 60 kWh/m2 as average. This will require about a 57% reductions compared with current EU-average (in 1990 the heat consumption was 150 kWh/m2 which is estimated to have decreased to 140 kWh/m2 in 2000 for EU-15). If energy-efficiency measures are included in renovations, such a change is possible. The increase in efficiency is estimated to be 2.5%/year from 2010, but only 5% in total 2000-2010. This could be realised by:
• raising building-codes to current low-energy housing levels by 2010,
• require that all major renovations include a major energy-renovation,
• increase energy renovations with financing, advice, campaigns, etc., and
• embark on a major program for passive-houses to achieve that the majority of new buildings are passive houses.

Passive houses" are buildings where internal energy sources and passive solar energy supply close to 100% of the demand for space heating.

For the new EU-countries is expected a similar increase in efficiency for space heating, but at a higher level of specific heat demand.

Efficient Transport
For transport is assumed that the conversion-efficiency from fuel to transport-work is increased 2.5 times (from current 15- 20% in combustion engine systems to 50% in fuel cell systems with break-energy recovering; direct electrically driven vehicles have even higher efficiency), and that the vehicles will be equipped with recovering of break-energy, so the "end-use" of energy in transport is limited to the unavoidable friction losses in transport (except for aviation). The total efficiency increase is assumed to be in the order of 4 times compared with today's average transport efficiency.
For rail, and navigation are "only" included increase in efficiency gains of 40% and 25% respectively.

Will Higher Efficiencies Be Possible?
There is not doubt that higher efficiencies will be possible than the factor 2-4 increases included in this vision; but given the current difficulties with realisation of efficiency potentials in many European countries, the efficiency increases proposed in this vision have been limited to the factor 2-4. It is proven that for individual industrial companies and houses, factor 4-10 is possible as increase in efficiency. The challenge is to realise the efficiency on national and international levels.

Decoupling Growth
The growth of energy services, i.e. heated floor space, transported goods and people, energy consuming production, is expected to reach saturation levels during the 50-year period of the vision. This is in line with the perception that the average Western European has reached a sufficient level of material consumption to satisfy needs, and that material growth should gradually be stopped leaving environmental space for the poorer parts of the world. The new EU countries are expected to have higher material growth in the first decades, similarly to the growth 2000 – 2010 and then gradually lower growth as they approach EU-average. If the gradual reduction of growth of energy services is to be realised, it will require that the growth of energy services does not follow the expected economic growth, i.e. that the economic growth is decoupled from growth in material consumption such as energy services. Alternatively the economic growth should reduce. If economic growth continues with 2.5% per year, GDP will double every 30 year, and will have increased 3.4 times in 50 years. A 2.5% economic growth is a normal growth rate that economists typically expect for Western European countries. If this level of economic growth is to continue, the challenge for realisation of the sustainable development described with this vision is to triple the economic value expressed as GDP compared with energy consuming structures and activities. Assumed growth in activities for old EU-countries (EU-15):

• Floor space, household and service: 30% increase 2000 - 2050 with 10% in the first decade and about 4%/decade after 2010
  
• Electric appliances in households and service: 10% higher growth than floor space, i.e. 43% in the period 2000 - 2050
  
• Industry: no growth in physical production volume, i.e. 0% in growth 2000 - 2050, but the value will grow.
  
• Personal transport: the vision includes a 35% reduction in private car use from 2000 to 2040 and an increase in train & tram use of 2.5 times as well an increase in bus use of 20%. As car use is expected to grow 15% 2000 - 2010, the proposed reduction from 2010 to 2040 is 43%, with 20% in the first decade and less later. This is a vision of a more human and sustainable transport.
  
• Freight transport: the vision includes a 50% reduction in road freight combined with 2.5 times increase in rail freight and 1.4 times increase in navigation from 2000 to 2050. There Given the expected increase in road freight of 10% from 2000 to 2010, the reduction with 2010 as basis will actually be larger. In addition to modal shift, this large reduction is expected by applying a real cost on road transport and thereby avoiding long-distance transport of low-value goods. Pipeline transport is expected to decrease 30% with decreased transport of fossil fuels and a small development of hydrogen pipelines.
  

Graph: Development of selected activities 2000 - 2050 for EU-15, Vision2050

For the 12 "new" EU countries is expected higher growth than for EU-15, mainly for the service sector and in road transport. For both these sectors is expected a 2 - 2.5 times increase above the 2000-level of activities, even more for some countries.

Renewable Energy Targets
The vision follows the expectation of 10 - 11 % renewable energy in 2010 for the 15 “old” EU countries, and the target proposed by a large number of NGOs and the European Parliament of 25% renewable energy in 2020. For the EU-27 the shares of renewable energy are in this vision 10% for 2010, 25% for 2020, 42% in 2030, and in 2050 above 95%.

For the 12 "new" EU countries is expected higher growth than for EU-15, mainly for the service sector and in road transport. For both these sectors is expected a 2 - 2.5 times increase above the 2000-level of activities.

Graph: EU-27 Renewable Energy Growth, Following Vision2050

Windpower
The Windforce10 report (updated in 2002 with the Windforce12 report) gives an overview of how it is possible to realise a large development of windpower in EU-15, following the current trends. Its targets are taken up by INFORSE, as well as by Greenpeace International, European Wind Energy Association, and others. The development expected in Windforce10/12 fits well with the necessary development to reach the goals of Vision2050, globally as well as on European level, see Windforce-text. The expected long-term electricity production from windpower is about 1000 TWh/year for EU-15, which will require about 385,000 MW of wind turbines equal to 90% of the long-term potential according to "Windforce10". Of this 1/3 of the capacity is expected to be off-shore. With this developments windpower will cover close to 50% of the 2050-electricity demand in EU-15. Studies for Denmark shows how a country can supply 50% of its power from windpower, and the Danish electricity system operator “Energinet DK” is now planning for this.
Intermediate targets for EU-15 are 75,000 MW in 2010 and 220,000 MW in 2020. These intermediate targets indicate that windpower is one of the most mature renewable energy technologies with most of the expected development in the first part of the period.

A modest target of 22,000 MW is included for the 12 new EU countries.

Solar
Solar heating as well as solar electricity are expected to play large roles. Solar heating can cover at least 10% of the heating demand, and more if seasonal storage is introduced. The use of solar heating is expected to raise to about 4.1 m2/capita, each m2 with a yield of 400 kWh/year in average. After 2030 is expected some use of seasonal storage, as solar will cover more than 10% of the demand in some sectors. The use of solar electricity (expected mainly as PV, but also solar thermal electric) is expected to increase to about 5.3 m2/year with an expected annual average production of 100 kWh/m2. This would give for EU an expected electricity production of almost 200 TWh. The current development is expected to speed up and the strongest development will take place in the later parts of the period.

Biomass
Until 2010 solid biomass use excl. energy crops for EU-15 is expected to grow to about 3900 PJ, about 75% of the sustainable potential, and a large increase from 2100 PJ in 2000. The current trends are a bit below the target in this paper, that is in itself below the 2010 target in the EU White Paper for renewable energy for the EU-15. While a large part of the 2010 target is expected to be reached with biomass for heating, it is expected that biomass also will be used more for cogeneration of heat and power.
After 2010 solid biomass is expected to grow up to a limit of 4100 PJ for EU-15 that is indicated as the sustainable potential for the EU by the German Advisory Council on Global Change in 2003. The limit for the 12 new countries is set to 1800 PJ, following other estimates.

In addition to solid biomass is included use of biogas of 750 PJ (210 TWh gas), 8 times the level in 2000 for EU-15 and 125 PJ for the 12 "new" countries. The increase in biogas use is based on an estimation of a total biogas potential in EU-15 of 209 TWh from Biogas in Europe: A General Overview by Jens Bo Holm-Nielsen, MSc. & Teodorita AI Seadi, Sc, Southern Danish University.

Energy forest is expected to be used after 2010, and to reach a level of about 7% of present agricultural land by 2020. The use is expected to grow to 2000 PJ of which 500 PJ in the 12 new countries.

In addition to this is included liquid biofuels, to be used in transportation, construction and other sectors. The use of biofuels is expected to reach about 460 PJ using 7% of the agricultural land extensively, i.e. with crops that also produce fodder and without extra demand for agricultural inputs (for some "new" countries, the area is limited to 5%). This will cover 1-2% of fuel demand for land transport and just above 3% in 2020; but with the expected transition to 10% electric and hydrogen vehicles in 2020, the EU 10% target of renewables in transport can be reached.

Hydropower
For hydropower is expected a 20% growth for EU-15. This is similar to the growth expected in the EU White Paper for Renewable Energy, but it is only expected to be realised by 2020. For the "new" countries is expected about 65% growth in average, including renovation of many smaller hydropower plants that were abandoned 1945-1990.

Geothermal energy
The use of geothermal energy for heating and electricity is expected to produce 450 PJ of energy in EU-15 and 260 PJ in the newer EU countries, primarily for heating. In addition to that comes contributions from heat pumps that are expected to play a role to balance the load, primarily for the EU-15 that have the highest fraction of intermittent electricity production.

Other renewables, such as wave-power can also play a large role in the future, but have not been assessed for this vision. They could give a smaller contribution from 2020.

Nuclear and Fossil Energy
Nuclear energy is expected to be phased out as the current nuclear reactors are stopped because of age, safety problems etc. This is expected to happen mainly until 2020. For fossil fuels are expected a gradual phase-out of and coal and oil use, and a growing gas consumption until 2010, followed by phase-out until 2050. A change from coal to gas for the EU-15 is expected in the period 2010 - 2020, and a closure of primarily coal fired power plants 2020 - 2030.

Energy Conversion, Hydrogen& Heat Pumps
The energy conversion system will also have to be changed. The electric grid is likely to increase in importance, because electricity will also be used for transport, directly or via conversion to hydrogen, and some heating will be via the use of heat-pumps. The large dependence on intermittent electricity supply makes it necessary to have flexible electricity consumption and energy storage in some forms. It is expected that use of current storage in hydropower, pump-storage etc. combined with more flexible consumption for heat via heat pumps and for hydrogen can provide the necessary regulation at least until 2025 and longer for the new EU countries. An obvious possible flexibility in power plants is to combine cogeneration plants with heat-pumps. When there is over-supply of electricity from solar and wind, the plant changes from producing electricity to consuming electricity, while still giving the heat users the necessary heat, and without loosing efficiency from turning to single production of heat or electricity. From 2030 there is probably need for additional electricity storage, e.g. as chemical storage. Storage in electric cars and demand side management might solve some of the storage problems. For EU-15 the fraction electricity that is intermittent supply (wind & solar) and flexible consumption is expected to be:
2020: Intermittent supply: 23% Flexible use: 1%
2030: Intermittent supply: 43% Flexible use: 7%
2040: Intermittent supply: 49% Flexible use: 16%
2050: Intermittent supply: 58% Flexible use: 22%
"Flexible use" includes production of hydrogen and use of heat pumps for district heating, but not electric cars or (other) demand side management.

For the "new" EU countries the use of windpower is expected to be less, and the need for electricity, leading to a lower fraction of intermittent supply, and less need for electricity storage.

Gas networks are expected to have decreasing importance. They might play a role for transportation of hydrogen or biogas, but probably not for long-distance transport after 2040.

Graph: EU-27 change of Energy Supply, following Vision2050

Graph: Development of EU-27 electricity production and sources, following Vision2050

Energy Trade
Energy trade is expected to be much less than today, and if the efficiency potentials are realised EU-15 might not be an energy importer after 2040. Some energy import is expected for the new EU countries, but only in the order of 10-15% of today’s level. The import is expected to be mainly electricity and could partly be covered with electricity import from other EU countries


Graph: EU-27 phase out of CO2 emissions

The assumptions used in the Vision are described in more details in the downloadable EU-27 background paper. A special note on the assumptions for Poland is downloadable here (word 34kB).

See also the Vision2050 for Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania, and UK.

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